The Hamptons real estate market is sending mixed signals this February, and reading them correctly may be the difference between a smart buy and a missed opportunity.
According to data from the East End Long Island listing system for the week of February 10, just 17 properties went into contract from Westhampton to Montauk. That figure represents a 39 percent year-over-year decline from the same week in 2025, when 28 contracts were signed, and a 26 percent drop from the 23 recorded during the equivalent period in 2024.
Dollar volume told a similar story. The week posted $62 million in total contract value, down 12 percent from last year's $70 million and a steep 71 percent below the $214 million logged the same week two years ago.
Yet brokers and analysts say the slowdown in activity is not a sign of weakening demand. Instead, it reflects a market that has simply run out of well-priced product.
"The real struggle remains the lack of inventory," said Geoff Trotter, one of seven panelists at a recent 27East Express Sessions event in Southampton Village titled "Taking the Pulse of the Hamptons Real Estate Market." Multiple agents at the event echoed the sentiment, noting that much of the existing inventory is stale because of aspirational pricing, while fairly priced, high-quality listings are moving fast.
The numbers back that up. As of February 10, there were 1,248 active listings and 318 in contract across the South Fork, for a total of 1,566. Twenty-three new listings entered the market during the week, a modest net increase of six after the 17 contracts. Five of those new listings were priced between $5 million and $10 million, and three more were above $10 million, underscoring the continued weight of luxury product in the pipeline.
Appraiser Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, writing in his Housing Notes newsletter this week, pointed to the structural factors keeping supply constrained. The so-called "Shinnecock squeeze," where Route 27 narrows to a single lane at the Shinnecock Canal, effectively caps large-scale development and preserves the exclusivity that drives pricing. During peak summer months, nearly 38,000 vehicles per day cross that canal, roughly 9,000 above the annual average.
Miller's data showed that in 2025, the Hamptons median sale price surpassed $2 million for the first time, with 70 percent of homes selling above $1 million. The market also posted its highest-ever count of sales above $5 million at 82 transactions for the year.
The geographic distribution of price growth has been uneven. Areas west of the Shinnecock Canal, from Hampton Bays to Remsenberg, saw prices jump 25 percent in 2025, according to Brown Harris Stevens data cited in a Yahoo Finance report this week. That far outpaced the 5 percent appreciation seen in more established eastern towns like Southampton and Montauk, suggesting that buyers priced out of traditional South Fork villages are pushing westward.
Wall Street's record 2025 compensation season continues to fuel activity at the top of the market. Miller noted that high-end buyers often time purchases around tax-year planning rather than seasonal patterns, making the traditional spring buying season less predictable than it once was.
For buyers watching the market this winter, the takeaway is clear: fewer transactions do not mean less competition. With inventory tight and pricing firm, the window for well-located properties at fair value remains narrow. The agents who spoke at the Southampton panel were unanimous in their optimism for 2026, even as they acknowledged the challenges facing entry-level buyers who keep the local economy running.
The Hamptons market is not cooling. It is simply waiting for inventory to catch up with demand.
Photo: Lumin Osity / Unsplash
