Miami's real estate market is running on two very different engines right now.
At the top, business is booming. Total home transactions above $1 million surged 21% in January compared to the same month last year, jumping from 164 deals to 199 across Miami-Dade County. Condo sales in the million-dollar-plus bracket climbed at the same pace, rising from 103 to 125. One out of every six existing condos sold in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach counties last month closed with a seven-figure price tag.
Below that line, the picture is less dramatic. Overall Miami-Dade condo sales slipped 0.1% year over year, the first dip in four months. Broward County's median condo price fell 2.8%, extending a decline that's been running for more than a year. Even in Miami-Dade, inventory is rising and the market is tilting toward buyers in the broader condo segment.
The divergence tells a clear story: capital is flowing aggressively into the luxury tier while the middle and lower segments absorb the aftershocks of higher mortgage rates, new condo association financial requirements following the Champlain Towers collapse, and a wave of new supply. South Florida saw a record 18,600 new apartment units completed in 2025, and median asking rents have dropped 3.4% as that inventory hits the market.
Single-family homes are holding stronger across the board. The median sale price in Miami-Dade rose 3.7% to just under $700,000, and Palm Beach County's median home price actually surpassed Miami-Dade's for the first time. Total Miami-Dade home sales have now increased for five consecutive months.
The wealth migration continues to power the luxury segment. Home sales across the region are being driven by out-of-state buyers from New York and California, many of them motivated by potential tax policy changes in their home states. California's proposed 5% wealth tax, which would apply retroactively to January 2026, has accelerated the flow of capital southward. Two-thirds of Palm Beach County condo sales still close in cash, insulating the luxury market from mortgage rate volatility.
The development pipeline reflects where the confidence is. PMG just launched sales for a 90-story Delano-branded residential tower in downtown Miami, a 985-foot supertall designed by Carlos Ott that would sit right next to the firm's under-construction 1,049-foot Waldorf Astoria tower. When one developer is building two thousand-foot towers on the same block, that's not speculation. That's a bet on sustained demand at the very top of the market.
For buyers in the $500,000 to $800,000 range, the math looks different. Rising inventory, softening rents, and stricter condo association reserve requirements are creating more negotiating power. It's a window that may not last if mortgage rates continue to decline and migration patterns hold.
But for the million-dollar-plus segment, the trajectory is one-directional. The money keeps coming, the deals keep closing, and the skyline keeps getting taller.
Photo: Sergio Arteaga / Unsplash
